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Cost of living / Groceries

How should supermarket competition be fixed?

Two supermarket groups sell most of New Zealand's groceries. Parties differ on how to change that.Woolworths NZ and the two Foodstuffs co-operatives (which run PAK'nSAVE, New World and Four Square) hold more than 80% of the national grocery market, according to the Commerce Commission's June 2026 report, which also found margins and profitability were flat while retail prices rose. Since its 2022 market study, governments have added a Grocery Commissioner, a supplier code, rules on wholesale supply and a faster consenting route for new stores. In June 2026 a cost-benefit analysis for the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment modelled splitting up the chains. For the 2026 election, parties propose different mixes of break-ups, a public chain, price rules, stronger regulators and easier entry for new stores. Only the plan to split Foodstuffs (proposed by National and NZ First) has been through a published cost-benefit analysis, so the evidence for the other parties' plans is thinner.

Uneven evidence. Some parties' plans have more published costings or analysis than others. Read what was found

As at 14 October 2026, no published cost-benefit analysis was found for a public chain, wholesale separation, easier entry, court-ordered break-ups or seed funding for new chains. Evidence sections for those plans are therefore shorter than for the Foodstuffs split. This reflects what has been published, not a judgement on the plans.

ViewDepth
Party order is random for each visitor. Tap a party's answer for its full breakdown and sources.Order

Bottom lines on this question

What a party has publicly said it must get, or won't accept, to form or support a government after the election. Only the party's own statements count, quoted with their source. Parties marked Bottom line below have one on that answer.

  • Opportunity

    Give the Commerce Commission power to force anti-competitive firms to split up.

    “a bottom line to empower the Commerce Commission to investigate, intervene and force structural separation”

  • No bottom line on this question found: ACT, Green, Labour, National, NZ First, Te Pāti Māori (checked 17 Oct 2026)

Every party's bottom lines, on all issues

Parties are grouped by the approach they take. A party can take more than one.

Approaches

7 of 7 parties take at least one

Make it easier for new supermarkets to open2 parties

  • ACT

    One consent process for new stores; accept UK, EU and US food labels.A single point for consents, liquor licences and approvals, and overseas food labels accepted without relabelling.

  • National

    Keep the faster consenting route for new supermarkets.The government's 2025 "express lane" for supermarket consents, which National has not said it would change. It had received no supermarket applications by July 2026.

Create a public supermarket chain1 party

  • Green

    Move at least 120 stores into KiwiMart, a publicly owned chain.Woolworths and Foodstuffs would sell at least 120 stores and two distribution centres into public ownership, at about $2.8 billion.

Break up the existing chains4 parties

  • Labour

    Run the chains' wholesale arms separately from their supermarkets.Foodstuffs Wholesale and Woolworths Wholesale would be run independently, with pricing firewalled from the stores.

  • National

    Split PAK'nSAVE from New World and Four Square, if the Commerce Commission agrees.Foodstuffs would become two national chains, creating three with Woolworths, only if a six-month Commission test finds shoppers gain.

  • NZ First

    Split Foodstuffs into a PAK'nSAVE co-operative and a New World and Four Square one.A law would create two nationwide co-operatives by brand, both competing with Woolworths.

  • OpportunityBottom line

    Let the Commission seek court-ordered break-ups of supermarkets and other duopolies.The High Court could order structural separation of firms in uncompetitive markets, on the Commission's application.

Ban excessive prices2 parties

  • Green

    Ban excessive supermarket prices and require margin disclosure.An immediate ban on excessive supermarket prices, later extended to energy and fuel.

  • Labour

    Make "price gouging" illegal for big firms selling groceries and other essentials.Firms with significant market power that charge prices well above cost could be taken to court and made to repay shoppers.

Give the regulator more power3 parties

  • Green

    More funding, higher fines and binding powers for the Commerce Commission.The Commission could issue binding directions and regulate loyalty schemes and store brands.

  • NZ First

    Australian-level penalties and a Grocery Commissioner with binding powers.Fines of up to $10 million, three times the gain or 10% of turnover, and faster investigations.

  • OpportunityBottom line

    More independence and $20 million a year more for the Commerce Commission.The Commission would get more funding and independence, plus a $5 million a year consumer advocacy fund.

Support local and Māori-owned sellers2 parties

  • Labour

    Guarantee small grocers wholesale supply and lift contract limits on Four Square owners.Smaller grocers get supply that cannot be cut off as they grow, and store owners can cut prices or go independent.

  • Te Pāti Māori

    $100 million and public land to start Māori-owned supermarkets; protect local kai sellers.Seed funding and Crown or council land for Māori collectives to set up chains, and protection for roadside and homegrown kai sellers.

Each party's whole answer, under the same headings for every party.

ACT

One consent process for new supermarkets, and overseas food labels accepted by default.ACT would set up a one-stop process so a business opening one or more supermarkets could get its resource consents, liquor licences and other approvals in one place, which ACT says would take "months, not years". Alcohol licence applications would be dealt with earlier. Food labelled for the UK, EU or US could be sold without relabelling, which ACT says would let overseas chains enter without special product runs for Australasia. ACT has not published a cost or start date. It opposes forced break-ups of Foodstuffs or Woolworths and has indicated it would block them in a re-elected coalition. The biggest tradeoff: it relies on a new chain choosing to enter, and a faster consenting route the government announced in 2025 had no supermarket applications by July 2026.

Approaches
Make it easier for new supermarkets to open. One consent process for new stores; accept UK, EU and US food labels.A single point for consents, liquor licences and approvals, and overseas food labels accepted without relabelling.

Green

Move at least 120 supermarkets into a public chain, KiwiMart, and ban excessive prices.The Greens would require Woolworths and Foodstuffs to sell at least 120 stores and distribution centre capacity into public ownership, forming KiwiMart, a publicly owned chain with a mandate to keep prices down. The Commerce Commission would choose the stores based on local market share and set compensation. The party estimates the cost at about $2.8 billion: $1.3 billion to buy the stores and two distribution centres and $1.5 billion to set up the business. It would also ban excessive supermarket prices, require supermarkets to disclose their margins, and give the Commerce Commission more funding, higher fines and power to issue binding directions. No start date or funding source has been published. The biggest tradeoff: taxpayers would carry the commercial risk of running a supermarket chain.

Approaches
Create a public supermarket chain. Move at least 120 stores into KiwiMart, a publicly owned chain.Woolworths and Foodstuffs would sell at least 120 stores and two distribution centres into public ownership, at about $2.8 billion.
Ban excessive prices. Ban excessive supermarket prices and require margin disclosure.An immediate ban on excessive supermarket prices, later extended to energy and fuel.
Give the regulator more power. More funding, higher fines and binding powers for the Commerce Commission.The Commission could issue binding directions and regulate loyalty schemes and store brands.

Labour

Separate the chains' wholesale arms from their stores, and ban "price gouging".Labour would require Woolworths and Foodstuffs to run their wholesale businesses separately from their supermarkets, as Foodstuffs Wholesale and Woolworths Wholesale, with pricing firewalled between them. Labour says smaller grocers would get guaranteed wholesale supply on fair terms, Four Square owners would be released from contract rules that stop them cutting prices or going independent, and "junk fees" on suppliers would be banned. A separate law would ban "price gouging" by large firms with market power in groceries and other essentials, with refunds to consumers. Labour aims to pass the legal framework within 100 days; 1News reports the split would follow a Commerce Commission review. No cost has been published. The biggest tradeoff: separating wholesale from retail could lose some of the efficiencies of running them together.

Approaches
Break up the existing chains. Run the chains' wholesale arms separately from their supermarkets.Foodstuffs Wholesale and Woolworths Wholesale would be run independently, with pricing firewalled from the stores.
Ban excessive prices. Make "price gouging" illegal for big firms selling groceries and other essentials.Firms with significant market power that charge prices well above cost could be taken to court and made to repay shoppers.
Support local and Māori-owned sellers. Guarantee small grocers wholesale supply and lift contract limits on Four Square owners.Smaller grocers get supply that cannot be cut off as they grow, and store owners can cut prices or go independent.

National

Split PAK'nSAVE from New World and Four Square if the Commerce Commission agrees.National would amend the Grocery Industry Competition Act within 100 days, then give the Commerce Commission six months to test whether separating PAK'nSAVE from New World and Four Square would leave shoppers better off. If the Commission says yes, National would legislate the split, creating three national chains alongside Woolworths; if not, it would not go ahead. Owner-operators would keep their stores and brands. A cost-benefit analysis for MBIE, which National's page refers to, estimates prices about 3.5% lower in the first year and a $2.9 billion net benefit over 20 years. The government it leads announced a faster consenting route for new supermarkets in 2025. ACT, its current partner, says it would block the split. The biggest tradeoff: the modelled benefit disappears if supply costs rise by more than about 2%.

Approaches
Make it easier for new supermarkets to open. Keep the faster consenting route for new supermarkets.The government's 2025 "express lane" for supermarket consents, which National has not said it would change. It had received no supermarket applications by July 2026.
Break up the existing chains. Split PAK'nSAVE from New World and Four Square, if the Commerce Commission agrees.Foodstuffs would become two national chains, creating three with Woolworths, only if a six-month Commission test finds shoppers gain.

NZ First

Split Foodstuffs into two competing co-operatives and toughen competition penalties.NZ First would pass a law splitting Foodstuffs into two nationwide co-operatives by brand: one for New World and Four Square, and one for PAK'nSAVE, both competing with Woolworths. It would raise Commerce Commission penalties for serious breaches to Australian levels (up to $10 million, three times the gain, or 10% of turnover), speed up investigations, give the Grocery Commissioner power to make binding decisions and impose penalties, and allow industry rules under the Commerce Act, including on shelf access for producers. Its policy page does not make the split depend on a Commerce Commission test. NZ First has not published a cost, timeline or details of how the split would work. The biggest tradeoff: the same split was modelled for MBIE as beneficial only if supply costs rise by less than about 2%.

Approaches
Break up the existing chains. Split Foodstuffs into a PAK'nSAVE co-operative and a New World and Four Square one.A law would create two nationwide co-operatives by brand, both competing with Woolworths.
Give the regulator more power. Australian-level penalties and a Grocery Commissioner with binding powers.Fines of up to $10 million, three times the gain or 10% of turnover, and faster investigations.

OpportunityBottom line

Let the Commerce Commission break up uncompetitive firms, including supermarkets, through the High Court.Opportunity would give the Commerce Commission more independence, $20 million a year in extra funding, and the legal power to break up duopolies and other uncompetitive markets through the High Court, modelled on EU and UK law. The power would apply across the economy, including supermarkets, banking and electricity, rather than naming a specific split. A $5 million a year consumer advocacy fund would also be set up. Opportunity has made empowering the Commission one of its coalition bottom lines, and says its changes would save families $12 to $31 a week across supermarkets, banks and other sectors. The biggest tradeoff: any split would depend on a Commission investigation and court case, so it is unclear which firms would be affected or when.

Approaches
Break up the existing chains. Let the Commission seek court-ordered break-ups of supermarkets and other duopolies.The High Court could order structural separation of firms in uncompetitive markets, on the Commission's application.
Give the regulator more power. More independence and $20 million a year more for the Commerce Commission.The Commission would get more funding and independence, plus a $5 million a year consumer advocacy fund.

Te Pāti Māori

$100 million to set up Māori-owned supermarket chains, and protect local kai sellers.Te Pāti Māori would provide $100 million in seed funding for Māori collectives to set up supermarket chains, and give them access to Crown or council land in commercially viable locations. It would protect whānau selling homegrown, homekill and roadside kai, and work with councils to free up land for growing food. These sit in a $3.1 billion kai sovereignty package, most of which ($2.8 billion) is an income tax kai credit for people earning $60,000 or less. The party's tax plan, which introduced the kai credit, proposes new taxes including a wealth tax and a stamp duty. It has not said how the supermarket funding would be allocated or when. The biggest tradeoff: new chains may struggle to reach the scale of the existing groups.

Approaches
Support local and Māori-owned sellers. $100 million and public land to start Māori-owned supermarkets; protect local kai sellers.Seed funding and Crown or council land for Māori collectives to set up chains, and protection for roadside and homegrown kai sellers.
Background and sources

Market share and prices. The Commerce Commission's third annual grocery report (2 June 2026) found the major supermarkets kept over 80% of the national retail market, with margins and profitability relatively flat and retail prices rising. Grocery Commissioner Pierre van Heerden said "reforms need more time to bed in to see significant improvements in the market" (Commerce Commission).

What has been tried. The Commission's 2022 market study recommended banning restrictive land covenants, freeing up sites for new stores and requiring the major retailers to consider wholesale supply requests from competitors; it did not recommend splitting the chains (Commerce Commission). Its wholesale supply inquiry, since closed, concluded that "competition remains weak on wholesale pricing, range and access" and did not propose new regulation for now (Commerce Commission). In August 2025 the government announced an "express lane" for consenting new supermarkets (1News); by July 2026 it had received no supermarket applications (interest.co.nz).

The break-up modelling. Sense Partners' June 2026 analysis for MBIE estimated that splitting Foodstuffs into a PAK'nSAVE chain and a New World and Four Square chain would give a net benefit of $2.9 billion over 20 years, with prices about 3.5% lower in the first year. The result falls to $0.9 billion if supply costs rise 2%, and turns negative above that. Splitting Woolworths as well added cost for little extra benefit. The authors said legal and implementation hurdles "might well be very high, or even insurmountable" (MBIE). A Foodstuffs-commissioned review by HoustonKemp called the results "too good to be true"; a peer review by former UK Competition Commission chief economist John Davies called the modelling "impressive" (1News).

Excess profits. The Commission's 2022 final report estimated that, in 2015 to 2019, the major retailers' profits were about $430 million a year above what its estimate of a normal return would give, or about $365 million (roughly $1 million a day) using its higher benchmark (paragraph 3.54) (Commerce Commission). Foodstuffs disputes using that benchmark as a "normal" return (Foodstuffs North Island).

ACT

ACT would set up a one-stop process so a business opening one or more supermarkets could get its resource consents, liquor licences and other approvals in one place, which ACT says would take "months, not years". Alcohol licence applications would be dealt with earlier. Food labelled for the UK, EU or US could be sold without relabelling, which ACT says would let overseas chains enter without special product runs for Australasia. ACT has not published a cost or start date. It opposes forced break-ups of Foodstuffs or Woolworths and has indicated it would block them in a re-elected coalition. The biggest tradeoff: it relies on a new chain choosing to enter, and a faster consenting route the government announced in 2025 had no supermarket applications by July 2026.

  • A single point for consents, liquor licences and approvals, and overseas food labels accepted without relabelling.

Who gains

  • Party claimNew supermarket entrants, including overseas chains, which ACT says face consents, licences and labelling rules that favour existing businesses. [1][2]

Who pays

  • Established evidenceNo new tax or charge is proposed. The policy does not say how a one-stop consenting body would be staffed or funded. [1]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Established evidenceACT has not published a cost for the policy. [1]
  • Party claimSeymour says resource consent currently takes about two years and $1 million before one new supermarket can open. [2]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Established evidenceThe Commerce Commission's 2022 market study recommended planning changes to free up sites for new stores and a ban on restrictive land covenants. [6]
  • Established evidenceThe government's 2025 faster consenting route for supermarkets had received no applications by July 2026. [7]

Risks and side effects

  • ContestedA new national chain would need 100 or more large sites, most of which the existing chains already hold, so faster consents may not be enough on their own (The Spinoff's analysis). [8]
  • Established evidenceSome imported food would carry labels written to UK, EU or US rules rather than New Zealand's. [1]

Implementation

  • Party claimACT says approvals would come through one coordinated process, including for stores in several council areas. It has not said which agency would run it or when. [1]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimDavid Seymour argues the main barrier to new chains is government regulation, not the existing supermarkets, and that easing entry avoids "costly restructures" and keeps investors willing to come to New Zealand. [3][5]

Strongest case against

  • ContestedLabour's Barbara Edmonds called the 2025 express lane "tinkering around the edges". Consumer NZ notes ACT does not propose a stronger Commerce Commission, and that attracting a third chain has had "little success so far". [9][10]
  1. Open the Door to Supermarket Competition · ACT New Zealand · accessed 14 Oct 2026 · archived copy (17 Oct 2026)
  2. ACT Party proposes 'one-stop consenting shop' for new supermarket entrants (28 September 2026) · interest.co.nz · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  3. ACT reveals supermarkets policy, decries 'insane' break-up proposals (28 September 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026 · archived copy (17 Oct 2026)
  4. Political parties' supermarket election proposals (21 September 2026) · interest.co.nz · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  5. It's breakup season: Labour, National clash on tearing up grocery duopoly (20 September 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026 · archived copy (17 Oct 2026)
  6. Grocery market study recommends changes to improve competition and benefit consumers (2022) · Commerce Commission · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  7. Just because it hasn't worked yet doesn't mean it's not a good idea (13 July 2026) · interest.co.nz · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  8. Everyone wants to break up the supermarkets. How would it actually work? (22 September 2026) · The Spinoff · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  9. 'Express lane' reforms to increase supermarket competition - Willis (27 August 2025) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026 · archived copy (17 Oct 2026)
  10. Election 2026: How the main parties plan to improve the grocery sector (1 October 2026) · Consumer NZ · accessed 14 Oct 2026
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 17 Oct 2026 Said ACT has indicated it would block a break-up, citing the reports of Seymour's statements, and that the 2025 consenting route was announced that year. [4][9]
  2. 17 Oct 2026 Cited 1News's breakup-season article under one source id instead of two. [5]
  3. 14 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources. [1]

Green

The Greens would require Woolworths and Foodstuffs to sell at least 120 stores and distribution centre capacity into public ownership, forming KiwiMart, a publicly owned chain with a mandate to keep prices down. The Commerce Commission would choose the stores based on local market share and set compensation. The party estimates the cost at about $2.8 billion: $1.3 billion to buy the stores and two distribution centres and $1.5 billion to set up the business. It would also ban excessive supermarket prices, require supermarkets to disclose their margins, and give the Commerce Commission more funding, higher fines and power to issue binding directions. No start date or funding source has been published. The biggest tradeoff: taxpayers would carry the commercial risk of running a supermarket chain.

  • Woolworths and Foodstuffs would sell at least 120 stores and two distribution centres into public ownership, at about $2.8 billion.
  • An immediate ban on excessive supermarket prices, later extended to energy and fuel.
  • The Commission could issue binding directions and regulate loyalty schemes and store brands.

Who gains

  • Party claimShoppers, who the Greens say would get a competitor mandated to keep prices down, and growers they say are squeezed by the two chains. [1][2]

Who pays

  • Established evidenceTaxpayers fund the purchase and set-up. Woolworths and Foodstuffs must sell stores at a price set by the Commerce Commission, which the Greens say should avoid "merely rewarding them for their dominant market position". [2]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Party claimAbout $2.8 billion: $1.3 billion to buy 120 stores and two distribution centres and $1.5 billion to set up KiwiMart as a business. [2][3]
  • Established evidenceThe Greens have not said how the cost would be funded. [2]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Established evidenceThe Commerce Commission's June 2026 report found the major supermarkets kept over 80% of the market, with flat margins and rising prices. [5]
  • ContestedThe Spinoff's analysis argues a public chain could end up with the least profitable stores and could not undercut the incumbents without subsidies. [6]

Risks and side effects

  • ContestedIf KiwiMart made losses, taxpayers would cover them. A ban on excessive prices depends on how a court or the Commission defines "excessive". [7][1]

Implementation

  • Party claimThe Commerce Commission would pick the stores and set compensation. The party has introduced a member's bill on excessive grocery prices. No timeline for KiwiMart has been published. [2][1]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimChlöe Swarbrick: "We're not short of supermarkets, we're short of competition." The Greens say no private third chain has arrived, so a public one is needed to compete on price. [2][3]

Strongest case against

  • Party claimNational's Nicola Willis says a state-owned chain "doesn't face the same commercial discipline as a private competitor". If KiwiMart can run commercially taxpayers need not own it; if it cannot, they carry the losses. [7]
  1. Affordable food for all of us. Reforming the food system. · Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  2. Greens pledge publicly owned supermarket chain called KiwiMart (6 September 2026) · interest.co.nz · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  3. KiwiMart: Greens promise public supermarket chain (6 September 2026) · Waatea News · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  4. Greens propose new supermarket chain in bid to cut grocery costs (6 September 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026 · archived copy (17 Oct 2026)
  5. ComCom releases state of grocery competition report (2 June 2026) · Commerce Commission · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  6. Everyone wants to break up the supermarkets. How would it actually work? (22 September 2026) · The Spinoff · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  7. KiwiMart must go in the bin next to KiwiBuild (Nicola Willis, 6 September 2026) · New Zealand National Party · accessed 14 Oct 2026
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 14 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources. [1]

Labour

Labour would require Woolworths and Foodstuffs to run their wholesale businesses separately from their supermarkets, as Foodstuffs Wholesale and Woolworths Wholesale, with pricing firewalled between them. Labour says smaller grocers would get guaranteed wholesale supply on fair terms, Four Square owners would be released from contract rules that stop them cutting prices or going independent, and "junk fees" on suppliers would be banned. A separate law would ban "price gouging" by large firms with market power in groceries and other essentials, with refunds to consumers. Labour aims to pass the legal framework within 100 days; 1News reports the split would follow a Commerce Commission review. No cost has been published. The biggest tradeoff: separating wholesale from retail could lose some of the efficiencies of running them together.

  • Foodstuffs Wholesale and Woolworths Wholesale would be run independently, with pricing firewalled from the stores.
  • Firms with significant market power that charge prices well above cost could be taken to court and made to repay shoppers.
  • Smaller grocers get supply that cannot be cut off as they grow, and store owners can cut prices or go independent.

Who gains

  • Party claimIndependent and small grocers, who Labour says often have to buy from their rivals; food producers facing supplier fees; and shoppers if lower wholesale prices are passed on. [1]

Who pays

  • Established evidenceWoolworths and Foodstuffs, which would have to run wholesale separately and could be ordered to repay overcharging. Dairies, cafes and independent grocers are excluded. [1][2]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Established evidenceLabour has not published a cost for either policy. [1][3]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Established evidenceThe Commerce Commission's wholesale inquiry found "competition remains weak on wholesale pricing, range and access". [4]
  • ContestedThe Spinoff reports a 2019 Commerce Commission report found "substantial efficiencies" in combining retail and wholesale, and that splitting them was not "necessary or desirable". [5]

Risks and side effects

  • Established evidenceThe price gouging tests ("well above" cost or a competitive price) have no published thresholds. Labour says the Commerce Commission would investigate and could take firms to court. [2]
  • ContestedSeparating wholesale from retail could lose the efficiencies of running them together. [5]

Implementation

  • Party claimLabour aims to have the legal framework in place within 100 days. Arena Williams says the companies would not have to sell their wholesale arms, but pricing would be firewalled and run by separate teams. [3]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimLabour says that without opening up wholesale, lower prices "won't flow through to the checkout". Chris Hipkins cites a greengrocer who could buy goods more cheaply at PAK'nSAVE than from wholesalers. [1][3]

Strongest case against

  • Party claimNational's Nicola Willis says wholesale separation was already examined and rejected as "complex, costly and high-risk", and calls the plan "concerningly light on detail". ACT's David Seymour warns of "costly restructures". [3]
  1. Fairer Grocery Prices · New Zealand Labour Party · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  2. Banning Price Gouging · New Zealand Labour Party · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  3. It's breakup season: Labour, National clash on tearing up grocery duopoly (20 September 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026 · archived copy (17 Oct 2026)
  4. Wholesale Supply Inquiry FAQs · Commerce Commission · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  5. Everyone wants to break up the supermarkets. How would it actually work? (22 September 2026) · The Spinoff · accessed 14 Oct 2026
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 17 Oct 2026 Put Labour's own terms in quotes or attributed them, dated the efficiencies finding to the 2019 Commission report The Spinoff cites, and dropped an unsourced closing month for the wholesale inquiry. [5][4]
  2. 17 Oct 2026 Cited 1News's breakup-season article under one source id instead of two. [3]
  3. 14 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources. [1]

National

National would amend the Grocery Industry Competition Act within 100 days, then give the Commerce Commission six months to test whether separating PAK'nSAVE from New World and Four Square would leave shoppers better off. If the Commission says yes, National would legislate the split, creating three national chains alongside Woolworths; if not, it would not go ahead. Owner-operators would keep their stores and brands. A cost-benefit analysis for MBIE, which National's page refers to, estimates prices about 3.5% lower in the first year and a $2.9 billion net benefit over 20 years. The government it leads announced a faster consenting route for new supermarkets in 2025. ACT, its current partner, says it would block the split. The biggest tradeoff: the modelled benefit disappears if supply costs rise by more than about 2%.

  • Foodstuffs would become two national chains, creating three with Woolworths, only if a six-month Commission test finds shoppers gain.
  • The government's 2025 "express lane" for supermarket consents, which National has not said it would change. It had received no supermarket applications by July 2026.

Who gains

  • Party claimShoppers, who National says would save an average of $560 a year, and suppliers, who would have more buyers. [1]
  • Independent estimateSense Partners estimates household gains of $110 to $730 a year at first, rising to $200 to $1,320 by 2035; lower-income households gain more as a share of income. [4]

Who pays

  • Independent estimateFoodstuffs, whose overheads Sense Partners assumes would rise 10% without shared costs. Much of the modelled shopper gain comes from lower supermarket profits, and the central estimate assumes supply costs rise 1%. [4]
  • ContestedFoodstuffs says all of its 500-plus locally owned stores would be affected; National says no owner would be forced to sell or rebrand. [2]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Independent estimateNet benefit of $2.9 billion over 20 years in the central case, $0.9 billion if supply costs rise 2%, and negative above that. [4]
  • ContestedA HoustonKemp review for Foodstuffs says the results look "too good to be true"; peer reviewer John Davies called the modelling "impressive". [7]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Party claimNational says New Zealand has 12.8 supermarkets per 100,000 people against an OECD average of 16.6. [1]
  • ContestedDrew Franklin (University of Auckland) says structural separation has worked overseas, but lower prices would not arrive quickly. [8]

Risks and side effects

  • Independent estimateSense Partners flags possible store closures in sparse areas, temporary price rises where choice is limited, and legal and implementation hurdles that "might well be very high, or even insurmountable". [4]

Implementation

  • Party claimAmend the Act within 100 days; the Commission then has six months to recommend. [2]
  • Independent estimateOn the Sense Partners timeline, separation would begin in 2029 and take full effect by 2035. [4][2]
  • Party claimACT says it would veto the split. [9]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimNicola Willis says competition is "still too weak", and National argues the chains' scale savings are not reaching shoppers, so three national chains would compete harder on price, specials and range. [2][1]

Strongest case against

  • ContestedBusinessNZ's Catherine Beard says it "sends a chilling signal to businesses" and duplicated costs could reach shoppers. Foodstuffs' Chris Quin asks "whether the promised benefits justify the disruption involved". [8][10]
  1. More grocery competition · New Zealand National Party · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  2. National to 'pursue' Pak'nSave and New World break-up (16 September 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  3. Election 2026: How the main parties plan to improve the grocery sector (1 October 2026) · Consumer NZ · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  4. Cost Benefit Analysis of options to restructure the New Zealand grocery sector (Sense Partners, June 2026) · Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  5. 'Express lane' reforms to increase supermarket competition - Willis (27 August 2025) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026 · archived copy (17 Oct 2026)
  6. Just because it hasn't worked yet doesn't mean it's not a good idea (13 July 2026) · interest.co.nz · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  7. Foodstuffs-commissioned review criticises break-up modelling (4 October 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026 · archived copy (17 Oct 2026)
  8. National's supermarket break-up: lower prices or a chilling signal to business? (16 September 2026) · The Spinoff · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  9. Political parties' supermarket election proposals (21 September 2026) · interest.co.nz · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  10. Foodstuffs challenges National to show receipts on supermarket split savings (18 September 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026 · archived copy (17 Oct 2026)
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 17 Oct 2026 Attributed the cost-benefit figures to the MBIE analysis, described the 2025 consenting route as a government decision with its take-up, and split independent figures from National's claims. [4][6]
  2. 17 Oct 2026 Typed ACT's veto statement as a party claim. [9]
  3. 14 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources. [1]

NZ First

NZ First would pass a law splitting Foodstuffs into two nationwide co-operatives by brand: one for New World and Four Square, and one for PAK'nSAVE, both competing with Woolworths. It would raise Commerce Commission penalties for serious breaches to Australian levels (up to $10 million, three times the gain, or 10% of turnover), speed up investigations, give the Grocery Commissioner power to make binding decisions and impose penalties, and allow industry rules under the Commerce Act, including on shelf access for producers. Its policy page does not make the split depend on a Commerce Commission test. NZ First has not published a cost, timeline or details of how the split would work. The biggest tradeoff: the same split was modelled for MBIE as beneficial only if supply costs rise by less than about 2%.

  • A law would create two nationwide co-operatives by brand, both competing with Woolworths.
  • Fines of up to $10 million, three times the gain or 10% of turnover, and faster investigations.

Who gains

  • Party claimShoppers and food producers. NZ First says families are "choosing between heating and eating" and cites a grower paid 60c a kilo for peas that sell for up to $5.79. [1]

Who pays

  • Established evidenceFoodstuffs and its owner-operators, through the restructure; firms that breach competition law would face higher penalties. [1]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Established evidenceNZ First has not published a cost. [1]
  • Independent estimateFor the same split, Sense Partners estimated a $2.9 billion net benefit over 20 years, falling to $0.9 billion if supply costs rise 2%. [4]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Party claimNZ First cites the Commerce Commission as having found the chains earning around $1 million a day in excess profits. [1]
  • ContestedThe Commission's 2022 final report estimated the major retailers' profits in 2015 to 2019 were about $430 million a year above a normal return, or about $365 million (roughly $1 million a day) on its higher benchmark. Foodstuffs disputes the benchmark. [5][6]
  • ContestedA HoustonKemp review for Foodstuffs says the split modelling looks "too good to be true"; peer reviewer John Davies called it "impressive". [7]

Risks and side effects

  • Independent estimateSense Partners flags possible store closures in sparse areas and legal and implementation hurdles that "might well be very high, or even insurmountable". [4]

Implementation

  • Established evidenceThe policy page does not say how the split would be carried out, who would own or run the new co-operatives, or when. [1]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimNZ First says "When they control the pathway from farm to shelf, they control the price", and that "the days of easy profits and zero accountability for the supermarket giants need to end". [1][2]

Strongest case against

  • ContestedACT's David Seymour says splitting a company does not make two more efficient ones, calling break-ups "insane". Foodstuffs' Chris Quin says the plans "run a real risk of the opposite" of lower prices. [8][9]
  1. Break up the Supermarket Duopoly · New Zealand First · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  2. New Zealand First pledges to break up supermarket duopoly, lift commission powers (19 April 2026) · Chris Lynch Media · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  3. National to 'pursue' Pak'nSave and New World break-up (16 September 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  4. Cost Benefit Analysis of options to restructure the New Zealand grocery sector (Sense Partners, June 2026) · Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  5. Market study into the retail grocery sector: Final report (8 March 2022) · Commerce Commission · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  6. Foodstuffs North Island fact checker (updated 24 May 2022) · Foodstuffs North Island · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  7. Foodstuffs-commissioned review criticises break-up modelling (4 October 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026 · archived copy (17 Oct 2026)
  8. ACT reveals supermarkets policy, decries 'insane' break-up proposals (28 September 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026 · archived copy (17 Oct 2026)
  9. 'Populist' streak in supermarket break-up plans - Foodstuffs boss (4 October 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026 · archived copy (17 Oct 2026)
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 14 Oct 2026 Traced the $1 million a day excess profit figure to the Commerce Commission's 2022 final report. [5]
  2. 14 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources. [1]

Opportunity

Opportunity would give the Commerce Commission more independence, $20 million a year in extra funding, and the legal power to break up duopolies and other uncompetitive markets through the High Court, modelled on EU and UK law. The power would apply across the economy, including supermarkets, banking and electricity, rather than naming a specific split. A $5 million a year consumer advocacy fund would also be set up. Opportunity has made empowering the Commission one of its coalition bottom lines, and says its changes would save families $12 to $31 a week across supermarkets, banks and other sectors. The biggest tradeoff: any split would depend on a Commission investigation and court case, so it is unclear which firms would be affected or when.

  • The Commission would get more funding and independence, plus a $5 million a year consumer advocacy fund.
  • The High Court could order structural separation of firms in uncompetitive markets, on the Commission's application.

Who gains

  • Party claimConsumers, who Opportunity says pay $30 a week more because of uncompetitive sectors such as supermarkets. [1]

Who pays

  • Party claimOpportunity says taxpayers would fund $20 million a year for the Commission and $5 million a year for consumer advocacy. [1]
  • Established evidenceFirms found to be uncompetitive could face court-ordered break-ups. [1]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Party claim$25 million a year in new spending; Opportunity says families would save $12 to $31 a week. [1]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Party claimOpportunity says New Zealand's competition law "lacks the ability to break up monopolies" and models its proposal on EU and UK provisions. [1]
  • Established evidenceThe Commerce Commission's June 2026 report found the major supermarkets kept over 80% of the market, with flat margins and rising prices. [5]

Risks and side effects

  • Party claimOpportunity itself calls structural separation "a blunt instrument". Court cases take time, and the party has not said which firms would be pursued first. [1][3]

Implementation

  • Established evidenceNeeds changes to the Commerce Act and then High Court cases brought by the Commission. Asked which overseas rules to copy, Qiulae Wong said "every market is different". [1][3]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimOpportunity says the threat of court-supervised break-ups would improve how dominant firms behave, and Qiulae Wong says the Commission would become an "independent watchdog with teeth" able to intervene. [1][3]

Strongest case against

  • ContestedACT's David Seymour calls break-up threats "terribly chilling" for investment: "once you start with one industry, the first question is who's next?" Consumer NZ warns forced divestment "could add cost". [6][4]
  1. Breakthrough Economy · The Opportunity Party · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  2. Bottom lines · The Opportunity Party · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  3. Opportunity wants Commerce Commission with teeth to tackle high prices (29 September 2026) · interest.co.nz · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  4. Election 2026: How the main parties plan to improve the grocery sector (1 October 2026) · Consumer NZ · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  5. ComCom releases state of grocery competition report (2 June 2026) · Commerce Commission · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  6. National MPs don't like supermarket break-up policy - David Seymour (21 September 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 17 Oct 2026 Typed the party's own funding and savings figures as party claims, separate from the court break-up power. [1]
  2. 14 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources. [1]

Te Pāti Māori

Te Pāti Māori would provide $100 million in seed funding for Māori collectives to set up supermarket chains, and give them access to Crown or council land in commercially viable locations. It would protect whānau selling homegrown, homekill and roadside kai, and work with councils to free up land for growing food. These sit in a $3.1 billion kai sovereignty package, most of which ($2.8 billion) is an income tax kai credit for people earning $60,000 or less. The party's tax plan, which introduced the kai credit, proposes new taxes including a wealth tax and a stamp duty. It has not said how the supermarket funding would be allocated or when. The biggest tradeoff: new chains may struggle to reach the scale of the existing groups.

  • Seed funding and Crown or council land for Māori collectives to set up chains, and protection for roadside and homegrown kai sellers.

Who gains

  • Party claimMāori collectives that set up supermarkets, and local kai sellers. The party says its wider package would reach about 3 million people through the kai credit. [2][3]

Who pays

  • Established evidenceTaxpayers fund the $100 million. The party's tax plan proposes a wealth tax on net assets over $2 million and a 5% stamp duty on residential sales. [5][2]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Party claim$100 million in seed funding within a $3.1 billion package. Crown or council land would be provided at no stated price. [2][3]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Established evidenceThe Commerce Commission's June 2026 report found new stores opening and specialty grocers expanding, but the major supermarkets still held over 80% of the market. [6]

Risks and side effects

  • ContestedA new national chain would need many large sites, most of which the existing chains already hold (The Spinoff's analysis). Smaller chains may also struggle to buy stock at competitive wholesale prices. [7][8]

Implementation

  • Established evidenceThe party has not said how the $100 million or the land would be allocated, who would qualify, or when. [3][1]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimHana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke says hunger in a country that grows plenty of food "is not a shortage of food. It is a failure of the system", and the party wants whānau to "own the system". [2]

Strongest case against

  • Party claimNo named critic of the supermarket funding was found. National's Simeon Brown called the tax plan that introduced the kai credit "the biggest tax grab in New Zealand's history". [5]
  1. Kai Sovereignty · Te Pāti Māori · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  2. Te Pāti Māori pledges $3.1 billion plan for 'kai sovereignty' if elected (21 September 2026) · 1News · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  3. From paddock to plate: Te Pāti Māori unveils kai sovereignty plan (21 September 2026) · Waatea News · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  4. Election 2026: How the main parties plan to improve the grocery sector (1 October 2026) · Consumer NZ · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  5. Te Pāti Māori's tax plan: $30k tax-free, a new stamp duty and a kai credit (27 August 2026) · The Spinoff · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  6. ComCom releases state of grocery competition report (2 June 2026) · Commerce Commission · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  7. Everyone wants to break up the supermarkets. How would it actually work? (22 September 2026) · The Spinoff · accessed 14 Oct 2026
  8. Wholesale Supply Inquiry FAQs · Commerce Commission · accessed 14 Oct 2026
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 14 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources. [1]