Cost and ageing. Treasury's long-term fiscal statement, He Tirohanga Mokopuna (24 September 2025), says NZ Super spending has grown from 3.9% of GDP in 2006 to 5.1% now and "is expected to grow to around 8% of GDP by 2065". There are about four people aged 15 to 64 for each person aged 65 and over, down from seven in the 1960s and projected to fall to two by 2065. Treasury says the cost could be held steady as a share of GDP by raising payments in line with inflation rather than wages, and that "achieving the same by steadily increasing the age of eligibility would require it to rise to 72 by 2065". It also says "signalling changes well in advance will enable people to adjust their savings decisions and plan for retirement" (Treasury). Treasury expects the number of people receiving Super to rise from 928,000 in 2024/25 to 1,084,000 in 2029/30 (interest.co.nz).
What the Retirement Commission says. Its 2025 review said "we do not support making these changes before the long-term plan is developed" and that a higher age "is no silver bullet", because it does not meet the needs of people who cannot work longer because of health or caregiving. It cites University of Otago surveys (2014 and 2022) in which raising the age to 67 "attracted significantly less support" than raising taxes to keep 65. It noted the OECD favours individual health assessments over occupation-based early retirement (Retirement Commission). In November 2025 the then Retirement Commissioner, Jane Wrightson, called for "a long-term political accord" (Retirement Commission).
Life expectancy. Infometrics found that, at 65, a Māori woman born in 2016 could expect about 13 years of Super against 20 for a non-Māori woman, and that Māori men born in 2016 have a health expectancy of 64 years. It concluded that lowering the age for Māori would not fix those gaps and would end Super's universal design (Infometrics).
Cross-party talks. On 11 October 2026 Nicola Willis (National) and Barbara Edmonds (Labour) agreed to cross-party talks on retirement (1News). Willis said starting them should be a priority within National's first 100 days, and Edmonds said she was willing to start a working group in that time (interest.co.nz).
Public opinion (context only). A 1News Verian poll of 1,001 eligible voters (13 to 17 June 2026) asked what the government's top priority on Super should be: 44% said keep eligibility unchanged, 26% gradually raise the age to 67, and 25% reduce or remove payments for people with higher incomes or assets (1News). Polling shows what voters prefer, not whether a policy would work.