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Law and order / Crime and sentencing

What should change in sentencing, prisons, youth offending, gang laws and policing?

Sentences, prisons, young offenders, gang laws and police. Parties differ on each.Since 2024 the government has brought back three strikes for serious violent and sexual offending, capped the discounts judges can give at sentencing, banned gang patches in public, made new offences for assaulting first responders and widened citizen's arrest. In September 2026 it passed a law letting the Youth Court send serious young offenders to military-style academies. There were 11,256 people in prison in June 2026, and the Ministry of Justice projects 15,200 by 2036 if nothing else changes. Parties propose tougher sentences and new offences, repealing three strikes and limits on judges, more spending on rehabilitation, ending the academies, raising the age of criminal responsibility, keeping or repealing the gang laws, more police patrols, or body cameras and stronger oversight of police.

Uneven evidence. Some parties' plans have more published costings or analysis than others. Read what was found

As at 18 October 2026, no independent costing was found for any party's plan on these questions. ACT gives a cost for its burglary policy, and National gives one for its Auckland transport police team. Te Pāti Māori says what share of police, courts and Corrections budgets it would move to a Māori justice authority, and Opportunity says where its funding would come from, without amounts. The Greens and NZ First give no costs. Labour has not released a law and order policy, so its entry draws on statements by its spokespeople. National's answers on prisons and gangs, and ACT's on youth academies and gangs, come from their records in government. Entries therefore differ in length. This reflects what has been published, not a judgement on the plans.

ViewDepth
Party order is random for each visitor. Tap a party's answer for its full breakdown and sources.Order

Bottom lines on this question

What a party has publicly said it must get, or won't accept, to form or support a government after the election. Only the party's own statements count, quoted with their source. Parties marked Bottom line below have one on that answer.

  • No bottom line on this question found: ACT, Green, Labour, National, NZ First, Opportunity, Te Pāti Māori (checked 17 Oct 2026)

Every party's bottom lines, on all issues

This question is split into smaller ones. Under each, parties giving the same answer are grouped together.

Sentencing

5 of 7 parties give an answer

Tougher sentences, new offences or deportation3 parties

  • ACT

    A third burglary conviction means at least three years in prison, without parole.ACT would also widen deportation for residents convicted of serious offences.

  • National

    No good character discount for sexual offending; new child-death silence offence.From the record: Paul Goldsmith capped sentence discounts for mitigating factors at 40 per cent in 2025.

  • NZ First

    Deportation liability for any imprisonable offence; automatic for violent or sexual crimes.Part of its immigration policy; no cost given. Newswire reported in June 2026 that NZ First wanted mandatory minimum sentences for coward punches.

Repeal three strikes and limits on judges2 parties

  • Green

    Abolish three strikes, mandatory minimums, life sentences and preventive detention.And limits on sentence discounts and home detention. The Greens describe the current approach as "packing prisons, restricting what judges can decide".

  • Te Pāti Māori

    Repeal three strikes, the 2025 sentencing changes and the Bail Amendment Act.And reinstate funding for cultural reports at sentencing.

  • Not part of its policy: Labour, Opportunity

Prisons and rehabilitation

4 of 7 parties give an answer

Build more prison places1 party

  • National

    From the record: more prison beds and staff as prisoner numbers rise.Budget 2026 gave $487 million for prison population pressures; an 810-bed Waikeria expansion is due in 2029.

Spend more on rehabilitation and alternatives3 parties

  • Green

    Rehabilitation for anyone convicted; Te Ao Mārama in all courts.Tikanga-based and restorative options such as Te Pae Oranga for anyone who wants them, and more support after release, including housing.

  • Opportunity

    More specialist courts, restorative justice, and trade training after prison.Funded partly by putting "a portion of ongoing cost pressure growth in the Corrections budget" into rehabilitation and prevention.

  • Te Pāti Māori

    Abolish prisons by 2040; fund a Māori Justice Authority with half of justice budgets.Prisons would be replaced by community-based, restorative and tikanga-led alternatives. The party says it would not abolish them in the 2026 term.

  • Not part of its policy: ACT, Labour, NZ First

Youth offending

5 of 7 parties give an answer

Keep military-style academies1 party

  • ACT

    From the record: ACT's Karen Chhour led the 2026 academy law.Chhour says the law would "help create less victims and make our communities safer". ACT has not said it would change it.

End military-style academies4 parties

  • Green

    End military-style academies.Green MP Tamatha Paul called the academy law "a moral panic". The manifesto does not say what would replace the academies for serious young offenders.

  • Labour

    Scrap the 2026 military-style academy law.Labour says most participants in the first pilot reoffended within a year. It has not said what would replace the academies.

  • Opportunity

    Redirect funding from the government's military-style academies, which it calls ineffective.The plan's funding would come first from "demonstrably ineffective programmes" such as the academies.

  • Te Pāti Māori

    Close military-style academies immediately and youth justice residences by 2030.Rangatahi would be supported through whānau-based care and tikanga-grounded rehabilitation.

Raise the age of criminal responsibility2 parties

  • Green

    Raise the age of criminal responsibility; no age stated.The 2026 manifesto gives no age; the party's 2023 policy said at least 14.

  • Te Pāti Māori

    Raise the age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 16.Listed among the laws and practices the manifesto would overhaul.

  • Not part of its policy: National, NZ First

Gang laws

3 of 7 parties give an answer

Keep or add laws aimed at gangs2 parties

  • ACT

    From the record: the Arms Act 2026 bars gang members from firearms licences.Nicole McKee led the Act as minister. ACT proposes no change to the 2024 gang laws.

  • National

    From the record: the 2024 gang patch ban.From the record: in government, National brought in the ban and has not said it would change it.

Repeal the gang laws1 party

  • Te Pāti Māori

    Repeal the gang legislation.The manifesto lists "Repeal Gangs Legislation" without naming which laws.

  • Not part of its policy: Green, Labour, NZ First, Opportunity

Police

4 of 7 parties give an answer

More police or patrols2 parties

  • ACT

    Fund police for a target of 100,000 more rural patrol hours a year.With a dedicated rural crime unit. ACT would also let licensed security officers detain some people until police arrive. No cost given.

  • National

    A dedicated police team on Auckland's buses, trains and ferries.1News reports 50 officers and $7 million extra in Budget 2027; National's policy page gives no number or cost.

Body cameras and stronger police oversight2 parties

  • Green

    Require police body cameras; strengthen the Independent Police Conduct Authority.Also de-escalation and trauma training for police, and more funding for Māori and Pacific Wardens.

  • Te Pāti Māori

    All police to wear body cameras; replace the Independent Police Conduct Authority.With "a genuinely independent, Māori-grounded oversight body".

  • Not part of its policy: Labour, NZ First, Opportunity

Each party's whole answer, under the same headings for every party.

ACT

Three strikes for burglary, more rural police patrols, deport serious offenders.ACT would bring in three strikes for burglary: a third burglary conviction would mean at least three years in prison, with no parole, home detention or early release. It would let residents convicted of offences carrying 10 years or more be deported however long they have lived here. It would fund a target of 100,000 more rural police patrol hours a year, and let licensed security officers detain some people until police arrive. In government, Karen Chhour led the youth military-style academy law, and Nicole McKee the Arms Act that bars gang members from firearms licences. The biggest tradeoff: ACT says repeat burglars could not offend while in prison, but it puts the cost at up to $200 million, for up to 952 more prisoners.

Sentencing
Tougher sentences, new offences or deportation. A third burglary conviction means at least three years in prison, without parole.ACT would also widen deportation for residents convicted of serious offences.
Prisons and rehabilitation
Not part of its policy
Youth offending
Keep military-style academies. From the record: ACT's Karen Chhour led the 2026 academy law.Chhour says the law would "help create less victims and make our communities safer". ACT has not said it would change it.
Gang laws
Keep or add laws aimed at gangs. From the record: the Arms Act 2026 bars gang members from firearms licences.Nicole McKee led the Act as minister. ACT proposes no change to the 2024 gang laws.
Police
More police or patrols. Fund police for a target of 100,000 more rural patrol hours a year.With a dedicated rural crime unit. ACT would also let licensed security officers detain some people until police arrive. No cost given.

Green

Repeal three strikes and mandatory minimums; fund rehabilitation; end military-style academies.The Greens would let judges decide sentences by abolishing mandatory minimum sentences, life sentences, preventive detention, three strikes and limits on sentence discounts and on home detention. They would fund rehabilitation for anyone convicted of an offence, make tikanga-based and restorative options available to anyone who wants them, expand the Te Ao Mārama court model to all courts, and improve support after release, including housing. They would end military-style academies, raise the age of criminal responsibility to an unstated age, require police to wear body cameras and strengthen the Independent Police Conduct Authority. No 2026 Green statement on the gang laws or police numbers was found. The biggest tradeoff: the Greens say tackling the causes of crime would make communities safer, but their 2026 manifesto gives no cost; the only figure found, the 2025 alternative budget's $770 million from averting prisoner number increases, was not independently costed.

Sentencing
Repeal three strikes and limits on judges. Abolish three strikes, mandatory minimums, life sentences and preventive detention.And limits on sentence discounts and home detention. The Greens describe the current approach as "packing prisons, restricting what judges can decide".
Prisons and rehabilitation
Spend more on rehabilitation and alternatives. Rehabilitation for anyone convicted; Te Ao Mārama in all courts.Tikanga-based and restorative options such as Te Pae Oranga for anyone who wants them, and more support after release, including housing.
Youth offending
End military-style academies. End military-style academies.Green MP Tamatha Paul called the academy law "a moral panic". The manifesto does not say what would replace the academies for serious young offenders.
Raise the age of criminal responsibility. Raise the age of criminal responsibility; no age stated.The 2026 manifesto gives no age; the party's 2023 policy said at least 14.
Gang laws
Not part of its policy
Police
Body cameras and stronger police oversight. Require police body cameras; strengthen the Independent Police Conduct Authority.Also de-escalation and trauma training for police, and more funding for Māori and Pacific Wardens.

Labour

No crime policy released; would scrap the military-style academy law.Labour has not released a law and order policy; its policy page and fiscal plan have none, so this entry draws on statements by its spokespeople. Children's spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime said Labour would scrap the military-style academy law if it won the election. Justice spokesperson Camilla Belich said she "would be very surprised" if Labour kept supporting three strikes, but did not commit to repealing it, and said Labour would not repeal everything the government has done. Corrections spokesperson Tracey McLellan said prisons "are a necessary measure for corrections", and Chris Hipkins ruled out supporting their abolition. The biggest tradeoff: Labour says most participants in the first academy pilot reoffended, but it has not said what it would offer serious young offenders instead.

Sentencing
Not part of its policy
Prisons and rehabilitation
Not part of its policy
Youth offending
End military-style academies. Scrap the 2026 military-style academy law.Labour says most participants in the first pilot reoffended within a year. It has not said what would replace the academies.
Gang laws
Not part of its policy
Police
Not part of its policy

National

End good character discounts for sex offenders; make silence over a child's killing a crime.National would stop judges treating good character as a reason for a lighter sentence for any sexual offence, and would create a crime, with up to 10 years in prison, for people present when a child aged 12 or under is killed who do not tell police what they know. It would set up a police team on Auckland's public transport (1News reports 50 officers). In government, its ministers capped sentence discounts in 2025, brought in the gang patch ban in 2024 and funded more prison places as the prison population grew; National has not said it would change these. It would also require consent to sex to be actively given, which is not compared here. The biggest tradeoff: National says "The consequences for the victim remain, regardless of the former reputation of the perpetrator", but it gives no cost or start date for its new sentencing proposals.

Sentencing
Tougher sentences, new offences or deportation. No good character discount for sexual offending; new child-death silence offence.From the record: Paul Goldsmith capped sentence discounts for mitigating factors at 40 per cent in 2025.
Prisons and rehabilitation
Build more prison places. From the record: more prison beds and staff as prisoner numbers rise.Budget 2026 gave $487 million for prison population pressures; an 810-bed Waikeria expansion is due in 2029.
Youth offending
Not part of its policy
Gang laws
Keep or add laws aimed at gangs. From the record: the 2024 gang patch ban.From the record: in government, National brought in the ban and has not said it would change it.
Police
More police or patrols. A dedicated police team on Auckland's buses, trains and ferries.1News reports 50 officers and $7 million extra in Budget 2027; National's policy page gives no number or cost.

NZ First

Deport non-citizens convicted of any imprisonable offence; no other 2026 crime policy found.NZ First's 2026 immigration policy would make non-citizens liable for deportation for any offence that can carry a prison sentence, and deport automatically those found guilty of offences including violent or sexual crimes, fraud, money laundering and migrant exploitation. In June 2026 Newswire reported that NZ First wanted mandatory minimum prison sentences for coward punches. No other 2026 NZ First policy on sentencing, prisons, youth offending, gangs or police was found. It says it demanded the coward-punch laws and tougher penalties for assaulting first responders in its coalition agreement, and Winston Peters says the coalition will shortly complete its commitment to 500 more frontline police; these are decisions of the National-led government, so they are background here. The biggest tradeoff: NZ First would widen deportation liability for offending by non-citizens, but it has not said how many people it would affect or what it would cost.

Sentencing
Tougher sentences, new offences or deportation. Deportation liability for any imprisonable offence; automatic for violent or sexual crimes.Part of its immigration policy; no cost given. Newswire reported in June 2026 that NZ First wanted mandatory minimum sentences for coward punches.
Prisons and rehabilitation
Not part of its policy
Youth offending
Not part of its policy
Gang laws
Not part of its policy
Police
Not part of its policy

Opportunity

Early help for at-risk children, more specialist courts, and support after prison.Opportunity's Smart on Crime plan would offer voluntary help to children and whānau from a child's first report of concern to Oranga Tamariki, and expand specialist courts such as the Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment Court, Te Ao Mārama and the Young Adult List. It would widen the Te Pae Oranga programme for low-level adult offenders, fund more restorative justice, and give people leaving prison trade training, case management and mentoring. It would move funding away from the government's military-style academies. No 2026 Opportunity policy on sentencing law, gangs or police numbers was found. The biggest tradeoff: Opportunity says early help would prevent offending before it starts, but it gives no cost, saying only that it would redirect academy funding and part of the growth in Corrections spending.

Sentencing
Not part of its policy
Prisons and rehabilitation
Spend more on rehabilitation and alternatives. More specialist courts, restorative justice, and trade training after prison.Funded partly by putting "a portion of ongoing cost pressure growth in the Corrections budget" into rehabilitation and prevention.
Youth offending
End military-style academies. Redirect funding from the government's military-style academies, which it calls ineffective.The plan's funding would come first from "demonstrably ineffective programmes" such as the academies.
Gang laws
Not part of its policy
Police
Not part of its policy

Te Pāti Māori

Abolish prisons by 2040; repeal three strikes and gang laws; end military-style academies immediately.Te Pāti Māori would abolish prisons by 2040, replacing them with community-based, restorative and tikanga-led alternatives, and says it would not abolish them in the 2026 term. It would set up an independent Māori Justice Authority funded from existing justice budgets, including half of the Corrections, Police and Courts budgets. It would repeal three strikes, the gang laws, the 2025 sentencing changes and the Bail Amendment Act, and restore funding for cultural reports at sentencing. It would close the military-style academies (the manifesto's bootcamps) immediately and youth justice residences by 2030, and raise the age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 16. All police would wear body cameras, and a Māori-grounded body would replace the Independent Police Conduct Authority. The biggest tradeoff: Te Pāti Māori says this would address the causes of offending, but it gives no cost, and no dates for the Māori Justice Authority or the repeals.

Sentencing
Repeal three strikes and limits on judges. Repeal three strikes, the 2025 sentencing changes and the Bail Amendment Act.And reinstate funding for cultural reports at sentencing.
Prisons and rehabilitation
Spend more on rehabilitation and alternatives. Abolish prisons by 2040; fund a Māori Justice Authority with half of justice budgets.Prisons would be replaced by community-based, restorative and tikanga-led alternatives. The party says it would not abolish them in the 2026 term.
Youth offending
End military-style academies. Close military-style academies immediately and youth justice residences by 2030.Rangatahi would be supported through whānau-based care and tikanga-grounded rehabilitation.
Raise the age of criminal responsibility. Raise the age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 16.Listed among the laws and practices the manifesto would overhaul.
Gang laws
Repeal the gang laws. Repeal the gang legislation.The manifesto lists "Repeal Gangs Legislation" without naming which laws.
Police
Body cameras and stronger police oversight. All police to wear body cameras; replace the Independent Police Conduct Authority.With "a genuinely independent, Māori-grounded oversight body".
Background and sources

Current law. Three strikes came back into force on 17 June 2025 for 42 serious violent and sexual offences: a first strike is a warning, a second means no parole, and a third means the maximum sentence without parole (Ministry of Justice). A strike counts only where the sentence is over 12 months for a first strike, or over 24 months for a second or third (Ministry of Justice). Since 29 June 2025, discounts for an offender's personal circumstances have been capped at 40 per cent unless that would be manifestly unjust, and the maximum discount for a guilty plea falls on a sliding scale from 25 per cent to 5 per cent for a plea entered during the trial (Ministry of Justice). Since 21 November 2024 the Gangs Act has banned gang patches and insignia in public for 35 listed gangs, and allows police dispersal notices and court non-consorting orders (Ministry of Justice). In August 2026 Parliament passed new offences for assaulting first responders and prison officers, coward-punch offences, shoplifting infringement fees and a wider citizen's arrest power (1News). A child under 10 cannot be charged with any offence. From 10 a child can be charged with murder or manslaughter; at 12 or 13, with offences carrying a maximum of 14 years or more (10 years or more for a previous offender); and from 14, with any offence (NZ Police). Most charges are dealt with in the Youth Court, but murder and manslaughter cases move to the High Court (Youth Court).

Prisons. At 30 June 2026 there were 11,256 people in prison, 4,616 of them on remand awaiting trial or sentence (Corrections). A person serving a prison sentence cost an average of $552 a day in 2024/25 (Corrections). The Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will rise 35 percent, to 15,200 by June 2036, if nothing else changes, and says recent sentencing changes mean "more people will receive prison sentences, and for longer terms" (Ministry of Justice). A 596-bed unit opened at Waikeria Prison in June 2025, and an 810-bed expansion there is due in 2029 (Corrections).

Crime and youth offending. The government's target is 20,000 fewer victims of assault, robbery or sexual assault by 2029 (DPMC), from 185,000 in October 2023. The latest survey result is 147,577, which the government rates "On Track", though it notes the survey's margins of error are high (DPMC). Children and young people with serious and persistent offending fell from 1,100 in June 2023 to 814 in June 2026 (DPMC). In the military-style academy pilot, the final evaluation found 5 of 9 participants reduced how often and how seriously they offended, against 2 of 9 in a comparison group, and said larger numbers were needed for stronger conclusions; Oranga Tamariki said seven of the 10 participants reoffended (RNZ via ODT).

Advice and views. In 2018, before the 2024–26 changes, the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor's office reported that "there is no evidence of the supposed 'deterrent' effect of harsher sentences" and that prisons are "extremely expensive training grounds for further offending" (PMCSA). The Law Society opposed bringing back three strikes, saying "there is inadequate evidence to suggest that a three strikes sentencing regime provides general deterrence" (Law Society). Supporters of the changes, including the government, say longer sentences keep the public safer: when the sentencing changes passed in 2025, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith said "Kiwis can now feel safer knowing serious criminals will spend longer in prison" (Beehive).

Related policies not compared here. Several parties have justice policies outside these five questions: sexual consent law (National and the Greens), family violence (ACT, the Greens and Opportunity), drug law (the Greens, Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori), firearms (ACT and the Greens) apart from rules aimed at gang members, and legal aid (the Greens and Te Pāti Māori). These are noted in each party's entry where relevant but not compared here.

ACT

ACT would bring in three strikes for burglary: a third burglary conviction would mean at least three years in prison, with no parole, home detention or early release. It would let residents convicted of offences carrying 10 years or more be deported however long they have lived here. It would fund a target of 100,000 more rural police patrol hours a year, and let licensed security officers detain some people until police arrive. In government, Karen Chhour led the youth military-style academy law, and Nicole McKee the Arms Act that bars gang members from firearms licences. The biggest tradeoff: ACT says repeat burglars could not offend while in prison, but it puts the cost at up to $200 million, for up to 952 more prisoners.

  • ACT would also widen deportation for residents convicted of serious offences.
  • Chhour says the law would "help create less victims and make our communities safer". ACT has not said it would change it.
  • Nicole McKee led the Act as minister. ACT proposes no change to the 2024 gang laws.
  • With a dedicated rural crime unit. ACT would also let licensed security officers detain some people until police arrive. No cost given.

Who gains

  • Party claimACT says repeat burglars "will not be able to victimise us from a jail cell", and gives 184,000 burglary victims in 2025 as its figure. [1]
  • Party claimACT says rural communities would gain from more patrols, citing a Federated Farmers survey in which 67% of farmers had experienced crime. [7]
  • Party claimACT says "Police can't respond quickly to every call" and that "New Zealand has twice as many licenced security officers as police officers". [8]

Who pays

  • Party claimACT puts the cost of the burglary policy at up to $200 million, to imprison up to 952 more people. [2]
  • Established evidenceACT gives no cost for the rural patrol hours or the security officer powers. [7][8]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Party claimNicole McKee estimated the burglary policy at about $200 million for one year, and said the crime prevented while burglars are in prison makes it "harder to model". [3]
  • Established evidenceNo independent costing of ACT's plan was found. [1]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Independent estimateThe Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will rise 35 percent, to 15,200 by June 2036, if nothing else changes, and says recent sentencing changes mean "more people will receive prison sentences, and for longer terms". [15]
  • Independent estimateThe government's survey count of victims of assault, robbery or sexual assault fell from 185,000 in October 2023 to 147,577 in May 2026; DPMC notes the survey's margins of error are high. [21]
  • Independent estimateDPMC reports that children and young people with serious and persistent offending fell from 1,100 in June 2023 to 814 in June 2026. [27]
  • Independent estimateIn 2018 the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor's office reported "there is no evidence of the supposed 'deterrent' effect of harsher sentences", and in 2024 the Law Society said there was "inadequate evidence to suggest that a three strikes sentencing regime provides general deterrence". Both address deterrence, not whether prison prevents offending while people are held. [24][25]
  • Independent estimateThe final evaluation of the academy pilot found 5 of 9 participants reduced how often and how seriously they offended, against 2 of 9 in a comparison group, and said larger numbers were needed for stronger conclusions; Oranga Tamariki said seven of the 10 participants reoffended. [13]
  • Independent estimateMBIE's 2025 analysis of a narrower government change to deportation liability, not this plan, estimated 5 to 10 more deportations a year and said "it is possible that some RCV holders may be disincentivised from criminal offending". [14]

Risks and side effects

  • ContestedSione Mataele, founder of Ubique Security, said of the security guard powers: "There's going to be a lot more assaults." [10]
  • Party claimACT says officers could detain people on private premises who refuse to give their name and address and won't leave, using "reasonable and proportionate force as a last resort". [8]

Implementation

  • Party claimACT says judges would keep their discretion between the three-year minimum and the 10-year maximum for burglary. [1]
  • Party claimNicole McKee said the burglary policy is "a campaign election policy but I would feel that our coalition would get in behind this", and that there was no need to consult National or NZ First; ACT gives no start date. [3]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimACT says of three strikes for burglary: "This policy is not primarily about deterring crime. It is about preventing it," because repeat burglars "will not be able to victimise us from a jail cell." [1]

Strongest case against

  • ContestedAuckland councillor and former police officer Alf Filipaina says ACT's burglary policy risks falling hardest on Māori and Pacific communities, says "rehabilitation is still the key in some particular incidents", and questions its $200 million cost. [4]
  1. Three Strikes for Burglary · ACT New Zealand · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  2. Crimefighting success and next steps (13 July 2026) · ACT New Zealand · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  3. ACT wants three strikes policy for burglary (RNZ, 8 July 2026) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  4. Māori, Pacific will wear the cost: councillor questions ACT's burglary policy (9 July 2026) · Pacific Media Network · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  5. Law and Order policies · ACT New Zealand · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  6. Deport serious offenders · ACT New Zealand · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  7. Rural crime · ACT New Zealand · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  8. Public space safety · ACT New Zealand · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  9. Law and order record · ACT New Zealand · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  10. More powers, more risk: security guards raise concerns over ACT Party proposal (3 July 2026) · Pacific Media Network · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  11. Bootcamps bill kicked over line (RNZ, 17 September 2026) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  12. New firearms system takes effect (Hon Nicole McKee, 23 September 2026) · New Zealand Government (via Scoop) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  13. Youth boot camp rushed, no meaningful data: report (RNZ, 6 November 2025) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  14. Regulatory Impact Statement: Expanding criminal deportation liability (26 May 2025) · Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  15. Justice Sector Projections released June 2026 (12 June 2026) · Ministry of Justice · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  16. Real consequences for crime restored · New Zealand Government (beehive.govt.nz) · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  17. New assault, shoplifting and citizen's arrest changes pass into law (6 August 2026) · 1News · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  18. 38,000 fewer victims of serious violent crime as gang laws mark one year (21 November 2025) · New Zealand Government (beehive.govt.nz) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  19. Boost for law and order (28 May 2026) · New Zealand National Party · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  20. Govt's target for 500 new police officers bumped out again (18 November 2025) · 1News · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  21. Government Target 4: Reduced violent crime, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  22. Stopping Coercion by Animal Abuse · ACT New Zealand · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  23. Bill continues progress on responding to serious youth offending (Hon Karen Chhour, 17 September 2026) · New Zealand Government (via Scoop) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  24. Using evidence to build a better justice system: the challenge of rising prison costs (29 March 2018) · Office of the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  25. Submission on the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill (23 July 2024) · New Zealand Law Society · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  26. Chris Luxon says he has no regrets over an unmet Government commitment (21 September 2026) · NZCity (Newstalk ZB) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  27. Government Target 3: Reduced child and youth offending, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 18 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources. [1][5]
As at 18 Oct 2026About ACTReport a problem with this entry

Green

The Greens would let judges decide sentences by abolishing mandatory minimum sentences, life sentences, preventive detention, three strikes and limits on sentence discounts and on home detention. They would fund rehabilitation for anyone convicted of an offence, make tikanga-based and restorative options available to anyone who wants them, expand the Te Ao Mārama court model to all courts, and improve support after release, including housing. They would end military-style academies, raise the age of criminal responsibility to an unstated age, require police to wear body cameras and strengthen the Independent Police Conduct Authority. No 2026 Green statement on the gang laws or police numbers was found. The biggest tradeoff: the Greens say tackling the causes of crime would make communities safer, but their 2026 manifesto gives no cost; the only figure found, the 2025 alternative budget's $770 million from averting prisoner number increases, was not independently costed.

  • And limits on sentence discounts and home detention. The Greens describe the current approach as "packing prisons, restricting what judges can decide".
  • Tikanga-based and restorative options such as Te Pae Oranga for anyone who wants them, and more support after release, including housing.
  • Green MP Tamatha Paul called the academy law "a moral panic". The manifesto does not say what would replace the academies for serious young offenders.
  • The 2026 manifesto gives no age; the party's 2023 policy said at least 14.
  • Also de-escalation and trauma training for police, and more funding for Māori and Pacific Wardens.

Who gains

  • Party claimThe Greens say "The Green Party will make our communities safer by addressing the drivers of crime", and that access to food, health care, education, adequate incomes, safe housing, and mental health and addiction services would address the root causes of crime. [1]
  • Party claimAnyone convicted of an offence would be offered rehabilitation, and tikanga-based and restorative options would be open to anyone who wants them. [1]

Who pays

  • Established evidenceThe manifesto gives no cost for its justice measures. [1][2]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Party claimThe Greens' 2025 alternative budget counted $770 million over four years from "averting increase in prisoner numbers". [5]
  • Established evidenceNo independent costing of the Greens' plan was found. [2]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Independent estimateThe Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will rise 35 percent, to 15,200 by June 2036, if nothing else changes, and says recent sentencing changes mean "more people will receive prison sentences, and for longer terms". [11]
  • Independent estimateThe government's survey count of victims of assault, robbery or sexual assault fell from 185,000 in October 2023 to 147,577 in May 2026; DPMC notes the survey's margins of error are high. [12]
  • Independent estimateDPMC reports that children and young people with serious and persistent offending fell from 1,100 in June 2023 to 814 in June 2026. [15]
  • Independent estimateIn 2018 the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor's office reported "there is no evidence of the supposed 'deterrent' effect of harsher sentences", and in 2024 the Law Society said there was "inadequate evidence to suggest that a three strikes sentencing regime provides general deterrence". Both address deterrence, not whether prison prevents offending while people are held. [13][14]
  • Independent estimateThe final evaluation of the academy pilot found 5 of 9 participants reduced how often and how seriously they offended, against 2 of 9 in a comparison group, and said larger numbers were needed for stronger conclusions; Oranga Tamariki said seven of the 10 participants reoffended. [10]

Risks and side effects

  • Established evidenceThe manifesto does not say what would replace life sentences and preventive detention for the most serious offenders. [1]

Implementation

  • Established evidenceThe manifesto gives no timetable for repealing the sentencing laws or for raising the age of criminal responsibility. [1]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimThe Greens say the government's approach of "packing prisons, restricting what judges can decide" "only causes more harm and hardship", and that "The Green Party will make our communities safer by addressing the drivers of crime". [1]

Strongest case against

  • ContestedACT's Todd Stephenson criticised the $770 million the Greens' 2025 budget counted from averting prisoner number increases. More generally, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith said longer sentences mean "Kiwis can now feel safer". [7][16]
  1. Manifesto 2026: Justice and Community Safety · Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  2. Manifesto 2026 (full document) · Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand · accessed 15 Oct 2026
  3. Manifesto 2026: Violence Prevention · Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  4. Manifesto 2026: Drug Law Reform · Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  5. Green Budget 2025 · Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand · accessed 15 Oct 2026
  6. Green Party: youth justice policy (election 2023) · interest.co.nz · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  7. Greens want to fund their socialist wishlist by letting criminals walk free (14 May 2025) · ACT New Zealand · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  8. Bootcamps bill kicked over line (RNZ, 17 September 2026) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  9. Election 2026: Te Pāti Māori to campaign on abolishing prisons, Labour dead set against it (26 January 2026) · Te Ao Māori News (NZ Herald) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  10. Youth boot camp rushed, no meaningful data: report (RNZ, 6 November 2025) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  11. Justice Sector Projections released June 2026 (12 June 2026) · Ministry of Justice · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  12. Government Target 4: Reduced violent crime, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  13. Using evidence to build a better justice system: the challenge of rising prison costs (29 March 2018) · Office of the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  14. Submission on the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill (23 July 2024) · New Zealand Law Society · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  15. Government Target 3: Reduced child and youth offending, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  16. Real consequences for crime restored · New Zealand Government (beehive.govt.nz) · accessed 17 Oct 2026
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 18 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources. [1][2]
As at 18 Oct 2026About GreenReport a problem with this entry

Labour

Labour has not released a law and order policy; its policy page and fiscal plan have none, so this entry draws on statements by its spokespeople. Children's spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime said Labour would scrap the military-style academy law if it won the election. Justice spokesperson Camilla Belich said she "would be very surprised" if Labour kept supporting three strikes, but did not commit to repealing it, and said Labour would not repeal everything the government has done. Corrections spokesperson Tracey McLellan said prisons "are a necessary measure for corrections", and Chris Hipkins ruled out supporting their abolition. The biggest tradeoff: Labour says most participants in the first academy pilot reoffended, but it has not said what it would offer serious young offenders instead.

  • Labour says most participants in the first pilot reoffended within a year. It has not said what would replace the academies.

Who gains

  • Party claimLabour says serious young offenders would no longer be sent to academies, which Willow-Jean Prime calls a "punitive" approach, saying most participants in the first pilot reoffended within a year. [7][6]

Who pays

  • Established evidenceLabour has not said what it would do with the academy funding or what would replace the academies. [6][1]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Established evidenceLabour's fiscal plan has no line for police, justice, courts or prisons, and no independent costing was found. [2]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Independent estimateThe Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will rise 35 percent, to 15,200 by June 2036, if nothing else changes, and says recent sentencing changes mean "more people will receive prison sentences, and for longer terms". [12]
  • Independent estimateThe government's survey count of victims of assault, robbery or sexual assault fell from 185,000 in October 2023 to 147,577 in May 2026; DPMC notes the survey's margins of error are high. [13]
  • Independent estimateDPMC reports that children and young people with serious and persistent offending fell from 1,100 in June 2023 to 814 in June 2026. [16]
  • Independent estimateIn 2018 the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor's office reported "there is no evidence of the supposed 'deterrent' effect of harsher sentences", and in 2024 the Law Society said there was "inadequate evidence to suggest that a three strikes sentencing regime provides general deterrence". Both address deterrence, not whether prison prevents offending while people are held. [14][15]
  • Independent estimateThe final evaluation of the academy pilot found 5 of 9 participants reduced how often and how seriously they offended, against 2 of 9 in a comparison group, and said larger numbers were needed for stronger conclusions; Oranga Tamariki said seven of the 10 participants reoffended. [11]

Risks and side effects

  • Established evidenceWith no released policy, Labour has not said whether it would keep or repeal three strikes, the 2025 sentencing changes or the gang patch ban. [3][1]

Implementation

  • Party claimChris Hipkins has ruled out the Greens and Te Pāti Māori holding the Police or Corrections portfolios if they are in government with Labour. [9]
  • Party claimCamilla Belich says Labour would not repeal everything the government has done, saying New Zealanders do not want "a flip-flop between policies" every three years. [4]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimWillow-Jean Prime calls the academy law a "punitive, tough on crime, tough on children approach", and Labour says most of the participants in the first pilot went on to reoffend within a year. [6][7]

Strongest case against

  • ContestedMinister for Children Karen Chhour (ACT), who led the military-style academy law for serious young offenders that Labour would scrap, says the law would "help create less victims and make our communities safer". [6]
  1. Labour policies (index page) · New Zealand Labour Party · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  2. Labour's Fiscal Plan · New Zealand Labour Party · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  3. Labour criticises Govt's 'bumper stickers' crime policies but won't commit to repealing them (26 May 2026) · Newstalk ZB (NZ Herald) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  4. Labour's justice spokeswoman Camilla Belich talks law-making, tikanga and why she prefers evidence to a good sound bite (25 May 2026) · LawNews · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  5. Election hub: party policy positions on retail crime (reviewed 14 October 2026) · Retail NZ · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  6. Bootcamps bill kicked over line (RNZ, 17 September 2026) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  7. Boot camp backlash: Labour calls for programme to be scrapped after alleged assaults (4 September 2026) · Waatea News · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  8. Election 2026: Te Pāti Māori to campaign on abolishing prisons, Labour dead set against it (26 January 2026) · Te Ao Māori News (NZ Herald) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  9. Greens co-leader doubles down amid outrage over gang visit (RNZ, 14 October 2026, updated 15 October) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  10. Questions remain on Labour's approach to gangs (16 October 2026) · New Zealand National Party · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  11. Youth boot camp rushed, no meaningful data: report (RNZ, 6 November 2025) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  12. Justice Sector Projections released June 2026 (12 June 2026) · Ministry of Justice · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  13. Government Target 4: Reduced violent crime, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  14. Using evidence to build a better justice system: the challenge of rising prison costs (29 March 2018) · Office of the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  15. Submission on the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill (23 July 2024) · New Zealand Law Society · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  16. Government Target 3: Reduced child and youth offending, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 18 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources; no Labour law and order policy found. [1][6]
As at 18 Oct 2026About LabourReport a problem with this entry

National

National would stop judges treating good character as a reason for a lighter sentence for any sexual offence, and would create a crime, with up to 10 years in prison, for people present when a child aged 12 or under is killed who do not tell police what they know. It would set up a police team on Auckland's public transport (1News reports 50 officers). In government, its ministers capped sentence discounts in 2025, brought in the gang patch ban in 2024 and funded more prison places as the prison population grew; National has not said it would change these. It would also require consent to sex to be actively given, which is not compared here. The biggest tradeoff: National says "The consequences for the victim remain, regardless of the former reputation of the perpetrator", but it gives no cost or start date for its new sentencing proposals.

  • From the record: Paul Goldsmith capped sentence discounts for mitigating factors at 40 per cent in 2025.
  • Budget 2026 gave $487 million for prison population pressures; an 810-bed Waikeria expansion is due in 2029.
  • From the record: in government, National brought in the ban and has not said it would change it.
  • 1News reports 50 officers and $7 million extra in Budget 2027; National's policy page gives no number or cost.

Who gains

  • Party claimPaul Goldsmith says ending good character discounts puts victims first: "The consequences for the victim remain, regardless of the former reputation of the perpetrator." [2]
  • Party claimNational says "Every Aucklander should be able to catch a bus, train or ferry and feel safe doing it." [7]

Who pays

  • Established evidenceNational gives no cost for the good character change or the new silence offence. [1][6]
  • Established evidenceBudget 2026 gave $487 million for prison population pressures. [13]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Party claim1News reports the Auckland transport police team would have 50 new officers and $7 million extra in Budget 2027. [8]
  • Established evidenceNo independent costing of National's plan was found. [1]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Independent estimateThe Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will rise 35 percent, to 15,200 by June 2036, if nothing else changes, and says recent sentencing changes mean "more people will receive prison sentences, and for longer terms". [20]
  • Independent estimateThe government's survey count of victims of assault, robbery or sexual assault fell from 185,000 in October 2023 to 147,577 in May 2026; DPMC notes the survey's margins of error are high. [21]
  • Independent estimateDPMC reports that children and young people with serious and persistent offending fell from 1,100 in June 2023 to 814 in June 2026. [25]
  • Independent estimateIn 2018 the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor's office reported "there is no evidence of the supposed 'deterrent' effect of harsher sentences", and in 2024 the Law Society said there was "inadequate evidence to suggest that a three strikes sentencing regime provides general deterrence". Both address deterrence, not whether prison prevents offending while people are held. [23][24]

Risks and side effects

  • ContestedMarie Dyhrberg KC said "sentencing systems generally work best when judges retain the ability to weigh all relevant circumstances". [5]
  • Established evidenceThe silence offence would be an exception to the right to silence; National has not yet set out its wording and says it would work with legal experts on it. [6]

Implementation

  • Established evidenceNational's policy pages and its 18 October release give no start date for the good character change, the silence offence or the transport police team. [1][6][7]
  • Established evidenceThe coalition's target of 500 new police officers missed its November 2025 deadline. [16]
  • Party claimIn September 2026 Christopher Luxon estimated the number of extra police would reach 502 by 12 November. [17]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimPaul Goldsmith says "The consequences for the victim remain, regardless of the former reputation of the perpetrator", and Chief Victims Advisor Ruth Money supports ending good character discounts for sexual offending. [2][3]

Strongest case against

  • ContestedElizabeth Hall, co-founder of the Defence Lawyers' Association, says of the good character policy: "It's really pretending that there's a problem and then offering what looks like might be a solution, that actually isn't". [4]
  1. Tougher Sentences for Sexual Offending · New Zealand National Party · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  2. National pledges to scrap 'good character' sentencing discounts for sex offenders (17 May 2026) · 1News · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  3. 'Most offensive process': Victims advisor backs sex sentencing proposal (18 May 2026) · 1News · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  4. National's sexual offenders policy discredited by Defence Lawyers' Association (RNZ, 17 May 2026) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  5. Fair sentencing concerns raised over planned ban on character consideration for sex offenders (19 May 2026) · NZ Lawyer · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  6. National to remove right to silence when a child is murdered · New Zealand National Party · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  7. More Police on Auckland's buses and trains · New Zealand National Party · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  8. National announces plan for Auckland transport police team if re-elected (13 September 2026) · 1News · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  9. Modernise Sexual Consent Laws · New Zealand National Party · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  10. Real consequences for crime restored · New Zealand Government (beehive.govt.nz) · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  11. 38,000 fewer victims of serious violent crime as gang laws mark one year (21 November 2025) · New Zealand Government (beehive.govt.nz) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  12. Questions remain on Labour's approach to gangs (16 October 2026) · New Zealand National Party · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  13. Boost for law and order (28 May 2026) · New Zealand National Party · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  14. New 596-bed development opens at Waikeria Prison (12 June 2025) · Department of Corrections · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  15. Luxon says surging prison numbers a 'good thing' (RNZ, 18 November 2025) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  16. Govt's target for 500 new police officers bumped out again (18 November 2025) · 1News · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  17. Chris Luxon says he has no regrets over an unmet Government commitment (21 September 2026) · NZCity (Newstalk ZB) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  18. Bootcamps bill kicked over line (RNZ, 17 September 2026) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  19. New firearms system takes effect (Hon Nicole McKee, 23 September 2026) · New Zealand Government (via Scoop) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  20. Justice Sector Projections released June 2026 (12 June 2026) · Ministry of Justice · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  21. Government Target 4: Reduced violent crime, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  22. Bill continues progress on responding to serious youth offending (Hon Karen Chhour, 17 September 2026) · New Zealand Government (via Scoop) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  23. Using evidence to build a better justice system: the challenge of rising prison costs (29 March 2018) · Office of the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  24. Submission on the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill (23 July 2024) · New Zealand Law Society · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  25. Government Target 3: Reduced child and youth offending, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 18 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources. [1][6]
As at 18 Oct 2026About NationalReport a problem with this entry

NZ First

NZ First's 2026 immigration policy would make non-citizens liable for deportation for any offence that can carry a prison sentence, and deport automatically those found guilty of offences including violent or sexual crimes, fraud, money laundering and migrant exploitation. In June 2026 Newswire reported that NZ First wanted mandatory minimum prison sentences for coward punches. No other 2026 NZ First policy on sentencing, prisons, youth offending, gangs or police was found. It says it demanded the coward-punch laws and tougher penalties for assaulting first responders in its coalition agreement, and Winston Peters says the coalition will shortly complete its commitment to 500 more frontline police; these are decisions of the National-led government, so they are background here. The biggest tradeoff: NZ First would widen deportation liability for offending by non-citizens, but it has not said how many people it would affect or what it would cost.

  • Part of its immigration policy; no cost given. Newswire reported in June 2026 that NZ First wanted mandatory minimum sentences for coward punches.

Who gains

  • Party claimNZ First says deportation liability would cover "any offence for which imprisonment is available as a sentence", with automatic deportation for those found guilty of "violent or sexual crimes", fraud, "participating in an organised criminal group, money laundering, aiding and abetting under the Immigration Act, or migrant exploitation". [1]

Who pays

  • Established evidenceNZ First has not said how many people would be deported or what the change would cost. [1]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Established evidenceNo costing by NZ First and no independent costing of its plan were found. [1]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Independent estimateThe Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will rise 35 percent, to 15,200 by June 2036, if nothing else changes, and says recent sentencing changes mean "more people will receive prison sentences, and for longer terms". [12]
  • Independent estimateThe government's survey count of victims of assault, robbery or sexual assault fell from 185,000 in October 2023 to 147,577 in May 2026; DPMC notes the survey's margins of error are high. [13]
  • Independent estimateDPMC reports that children and young people with serious and persistent offending fell from 1,100 in June 2023 to 814 in June 2026. [21]
  • Independent estimateIn 2018 the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor's office reported "there is no evidence of the supposed 'deterrent' effect of harsher sentences", and in 2024 the Law Society said there was "inadequate evidence to suggest that a three strikes sentencing regime provides general deterrence". Both address deterrence, not whether prison prevents offending while people are held. [17][18]
  • Independent estimateMBIE's 2025 analysis of a narrower government change to deportation liability, not this plan, estimated 5 to 10 more deportations a year and said "it is possible that some RCV holders may be disincentivised from criminal offending". [4]

Risks and side effects

  • Established evidenceNZ First's policy does not say whether the wider deportation liability would depend on how long a person has lived in New Zealand, or whether there would be a right of appeal. [1]

Implementation

  • Established evidenceThe coward-punch and first-responder assault offences NZ First says it sought passed in August 2026, as law made by the National-led government it is part of. [5]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimNZ First's announcement gives "greater pressure on housing, infrastructure and public services" as the reason for its immigration changes; it gives no separate reason for deporting non-citizens convicted of "any offence for which imprisonment is available". [14][1]

Strongest case against

  • ContestedNo named critic of NZ First's deportation plan was found. More generally, MBIE's analysis of a narrower 2025 government change, not NZ First's plan, said it "may adversely affect particular groups, like Pacific and Asian males". [4]
  1. Immigration Reform Policies · New Zealand First · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  2. Winston Peters: Hope, and a better tomorrow (20 July 2026) · New Zealand First · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  3. New Zealand First Policy · New Zealand First · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  4. Regulatory Impact Statement: Expanding criminal deportation liability (26 May 2025) · Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  5. New assault, shoplifting and citizen's arrest changes pass into law (6 August 2026) · 1News · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  6. Real consequences for crime restored · New Zealand Government (beehive.govt.nz) · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  7. 38,000 fewer victims of serious violent crime as gang laws mark one year (21 November 2025) · New Zealand Government (beehive.govt.nz) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  8. Boost for law and order (28 May 2026) · New Zealand National Party · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  9. Govt's target for 500 new police officers bumped out again (18 November 2025) · 1News · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  10. Bootcamps bill kicked over line (RNZ, 17 September 2026) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  11. New firearms system takes effect (Hon Nicole McKee, 23 September 2026) · New Zealand Government (via Scoop) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  12. Justice Sector Projections released June 2026 (12 June 2026) · Ministry of Justice · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  13. Government Target 4: Reduced violent crime, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  14. NZ First announces immigration reform policies (11 September 2026) · New Zealand First · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  15. NZ First attacks the government's own coward punch law as close to window dressing (14 June 2026) · Newswire · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  16. Bill continues progress on responding to serious youth offending (Hon Karen Chhour, 17 September 2026) · New Zealand Government (via Scoop) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  17. Using evidence to build a better justice system: the challenge of rising prison costs (29 March 2018) · Office of the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  18. Submission on the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill (23 July 2024) · New Zealand Law Society · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  19. Chris Luxon says he has no regrets over an unmet Government commitment (21 September 2026) · NZCity (Newstalk ZB) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  20. Ban Public Sales of Fireworks · New Zealand First · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  21. Government Target 3: Reduced child and youth offending, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 18 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources. [1][2]
As at 18 Oct 2026About NZ FirstReport a problem with this entry

Opportunity

Opportunity's Smart on Crime plan would offer voluntary help to children and whānau from a child's first report of concern to Oranga Tamariki, and expand specialist courts such as the Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment Court, Te Ao Mārama and the Young Adult List. It would widen the Te Pae Oranga programme for low-level adult offenders, fund more restorative justice, and give people leaving prison trade training, case management and mentoring. It would move funding away from the government's military-style academies. No 2026 Opportunity policy on sentencing law, gangs or police numbers was found. The biggest tradeoff: Opportunity says early help would prevent offending before it starts, but it gives no cost, saying only that it would redirect academy funding and part of the growth in Corrections spending.

  • Funded partly by putting "a portion of ongoing cost pressure growth in the Corrections budget" into rehabilitation and prevention.
  • The plan's funding would come first from "demonstrably ineffective programmes" such as the academies.

Who gains

  • Party claimOpportunity says children and whānau with risk factors would be offered voluntary help from the first Oranga Tamariki report of concern, often "long before they offend", and people leaving prison would get help with accommodation and jobs. [2]
  • Party claimOpportunity cites a 2025 Ministry of Justice survey in which 82% of victims were satisfied with their restorative justice conference. [2]

Who pays

  • Party claimOpportunity would redirect academy funding and "a portion of ongoing cost pressure growth in the Corrections budget". [2]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Established evidenceNo costing by Opportunity, no amount for either funding source and no independent costing of its plan were found. [1][2]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Independent estimateThe Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will rise 35 percent, to 15,200 by June 2036, if nothing else changes, and says recent sentencing changes mean "more people will receive prison sentences, and for longer terms". [7]
  • Independent estimateThe government's survey count of victims of assault, robbery or sexual assault fell from 185,000 in October 2023 to 147,577 in May 2026; DPMC notes the survey's margins of error are high. [8]
  • Independent estimateDPMC reports that children and young people with serious and persistent offending fell from 1,100 in June 2023 to 814 in June 2026. [11]
  • Independent estimateIn 2018 the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor's office reported "there is no evidence of the supposed 'deterrent' effect of harsher sentences", and in 2024 the Law Society said there was "inadequate evidence to suggest that a three strikes sentencing regime provides general deterrence". Both address deterrence, not whether prison prevents offending while people are held. [9][10]
  • Independent estimateThe final evaluation of the academy pilot found 5 of 9 participants reduced how often and how seriously they offended, against 2 of 9 in a comparison group, and said larger numbers were needed for stronger conclusions; Oranga Tamariki said seven of the 10 participants reoffended. [6]

Risks and side effects

  • Established evidenceThe plan does not say how many more specialist court places, restorative justice conferences or mentoring places it would fund. [2]

Implementation

  • Established evidenceOpportunity gives no start date or timetable for expanding the specialist courts or Te Pae Oranga. [1][2]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimOpportunity says "Tough-on crime is a slogan for short-term political gain. Smart on Crime is a plan for long-term safety and security", and that more than half of people leaving prison reoffend within two years. [1]

Strongest case against

  • ContestedNo named critic of Opportunity's current plan was found. More generally, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith said in 2025 "Kiwis can now feel safer knowing serious criminals will spend longer in prison". [12]
  1. Smart On Crime · The Opportunity Party · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  2. Smart on Crime: policy overview (September 2026) · The Opportunity Party · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  3. Opportunity Party wanted to raise youth justice age to 25, now can't say what the limit should be (1 August 2026) · Chris Lynch Media · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  4. Annual Report 2024/25 (October 2025) · Department of Corrections · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  5. Another law and order pledge ticked off (27 March 2025) · The Spinoff · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  6. Youth boot camp rushed, no meaningful data: report (RNZ, 6 November 2025) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  7. Justice Sector Projections released June 2026 (12 June 2026) · Ministry of Justice · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  8. Government Target 4: Reduced violent crime, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  9. Using evidence to build a better justice system: the challenge of rising prison costs (29 March 2018) · Office of the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  10. Submission on the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill (23 July 2024) · New Zealand Law Society · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  11. Government Target 3: Reduced child and youth offending, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  12. Real consequences for crime restored · New Zealand Government (beehive.govt.nz) · accessed 17 Oct 2026
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 18 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources. [1][2]
As at 18 Oct 2026About OpportunityReport a problem with this entry

Te Pāti Māori

Te Pāti Māori would abolish prisons by 2040, replacing them with community-based, restorative and tikanga-led alternatives, and says it would not abolish them in the 2026 term. It would set up an independent Māori Justice Authority funded from existing justice budgets, including half of the Corrections, Police and Courts budgets. It would repeal three strikes, the gang laws, the 2025 sentencing changes and the Bail Amendment Act, and restore funding for cultural reports at sentencing. It would close the military-style academies (the manifesto's bootcamps) immediately and youth justice residences by 2030, and raise the age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 16. All police would wear body cameras, and a Māori-grounded body would replace the Independent Police Conduct Authority. The biggest tradeoff: Te Pāti Māori says this would address the causes of offending, but it gives no cost, and no dates for the Māori Justice Authority or the repeals.

  • And reinstate funding for cultural reports at sentencing.
  • Prisons would be replaced by community-based, restorative and tikanga-led alternatives. The party says it would not abolish them in the 2026 term.
  • Rangatahi would be supported through whānau-based care and tikanga-grounded rehabilitation.
  • Listed among the laws and practices the manifesto would overhaul.
  • The manifesto lists "Repeal Gangs Legislation" without naming which laws.
  • With "a genuinely independent, Māori-grounded oversight body".

Who gains

  • Party claimTe Pāti Māori says Māori are "more likely to be stopped, searched, arrested, denied bail, convicted, and imprisoned than anyone else in Aotearoa", and that its plan would reduce harm and reoffending. [1]

Who pays

  • Party claimThe Māori Justice Authority would be funded by reallocating existing justice budgets, including 50% of Vote Corrections, Vote Police and Vote Courts. [1]
  • Established evidenceTe Pāti Māori gives no dollar amount for the Māori Justice Authority's share of Vote Corrections, Vote Police and Vote Courts. [1]

Cost and costing disputes

  • Established evidenceNo costing by Te Pāti Māori and no independent costing of its plan were found. [1][4]

Evidence from elsewhere

  • Independent estimateThe Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will rise 35 percent, to 15,200 by June 2036, if nothing else changes, and says recent sentencing changes mean "more people will receive prison sentences, and for longer terms". [7]
  • Independent estimateThe government's survey count of victims of assault, robbery or sexual assault fell from 185,000 in October 2023 to 147,577 in May 2026; DPMC notes the survey's margins of error are high. [8]
  • Independent estimateDPMC reports that children and young people with serious and persistent offending fell from 1,100 in June 2023 to 814 in June 2026. [11]
  • Independent estimateIn 2018 the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor's office reported "there is no evidence of the supposed 'deterrent' effect of harsher sentences", and in 2024 the Law Society said there was "inadequate evidence to suggest that a three strikes sentencing regime provides general deterrence". Both address deterrence, not whether prison prevents offending while people are held. [9][10]
  • Independent estimateThe final evaluation of the academy pilot found 5 of 9 participants reduced how often and how seriously they offended, against 2 of 9 in a comparison group, and said larger numbers were needed for stronger conclusions; Oranga Tamariki said seven of the 10 participants reoffended. [6]

Risks and side effects

  • Established evidenceApart from closing the academies immediately and youth justice residences by 2030, Te Pāti Māori gives no dates for the Māori Justice Authority, the repeals or the rest of the move to abolition in 2040. [1][3]

Implementation

  • Party claimThe party says "We are not going to abolish prisons when we are in government in 2026". [3]
  • Established evidenceTe Pāti Māori gives no start date for the Māori Justice Authority or for repealing the laws it lists. [1]

Strongest case for

  • Party claimTe Pāti Māori says "Over half of all prisoners reoffend within two years of their release", and that its approach is "about being hard on healing rather than hard on crime". [3]

Strongest case against

  • ContestedACT's David Seymour asks of prison abolition, "Why would they do this when Māori are disproportionately victims?", and Labour's Chris Hipkins says "I cannot envisage a scenario at all where Labour would support their abolition." [5][4]
  1. Te Pāti Māori Policy Manifesto 2026: Justice (pages 27 to 30) · Te Pāti Māori · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  2. Justice · Te Pāti Māori · accessed 17 Oct 2026
  3. If you're not trying to abolish prisons in Aotearoa, what are you doing in Parliament? (28 January 2026) · Te Pāti Māori · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  4. Election 2026: Te Pāti Māori to campaign on abolishing prisons, Labour dead set against it (26 January 2026) · Te Ao Māori News (NZ Herald) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  5. Te Pāti Māori wants to abolish prisons. The idea is not just a fantasy (opinion, 30 January 2026) · The Spinoff · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  6. Youth boot camp rushed, no meaningful data: report (RNZ, 6 November 2025) · Otago Daily Times (RNZ) · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  7. Justice Sector Projections released June 2026 (12 June 2026) · Ministry of Justice · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  8. Government Target 4: Reduced violent crime, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  9. Using evidence to build a better justice system: the challenge of rising prison costs (29 March 2018) · Office of the Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  10. Submission on the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill (23 July 2024) · New Zealand Law Society · accessed 18 Oct 2026
  11. Government Target 3: Reduced child and youth offending, factsheet, June 2026 quarter · Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet · accessed 18 Oct 2026
Change history

Every recorded change to this entry, newest first, including our own corrections after checks.

  1. 18 Oct 2026 First researched from party and independent sources, including the party's full justice manifesto. [1][3]
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